Market Update - October 2026

October 2026 Market Update · Ada and Canyon Counties, Idaho

It probably feels like the ground keeps shifting. Rates have climbed for seven straight weeks, the headlines contradict each other, and it’s hard to tell whether to move forward or wait. Here’s what the numbers actually show.

What’s happening locally

In Ada County, 683 homes closed in September, up 23% from last September. Active listings fell 19% to 1,087. Canyon County moved the same direction, just more gently.

What changed with rates

As of October 8, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.40%, up from 7.28% a week earlier and 6.30% a year ago. That’s the highest since November 2023, and the seventh weekly increase in a row. The 15-year averaged 6.73%. Since late August, the 30-year has moved up about three-quarters of a point, from 6.66% on August 27. The Federal Reserve also raised its target range to 3¾–4% on September 16, its first hike since 2023, and its median projection points to one more before year-end.

In real dollars: on a $540,000 home with 20% down, the principal-and-interest payment at 7.40% is about $2,991 a month, roughly $215 more than at the 6.66% we saw at the end of August.

Where this leaves you

Rates are higher, prices have held steady (Ada’s average sold price is up 1.4% over the past year), and there’s less to choose from than a year ago.

If you’re thinking about buying

The bigger change is your payment, not the price. Homes in the $400K–$800K range sold for about 99% of their original list price, so there isn’t a lot of room to wait for a discount. What would need to be true for a purchase to still feel comfortable at today’s payment?

If you’re thinking about selling

With 19% fewer homes on the market than last year, you have less competition. Buyers are watching their payments closely, though, so pricing correctly from day one matters. Homes in the $400K–$800K range averaged 30 to 39 days on market. How would a move fit into your plans over the next year?

Luxury ($800K+)

Ada County has about 2.8 months of supply across 1,251 sales in the past year. Homes from $800K to $1M sold at about 99% of original list price, and $1M–$1.5M at 98.5%. Over $2M is a different market, with 9.0 months of supply, so pricing strategy matters most there.

New construction

Ada County has 3.7 months of new-home inventory versus 1.9 for resale homes. That means more selection but more time on market (76 days vs. 36). It’s worth asking builders about incentives, including rate buydowns.

Want a quick look at your numbers?

I’m not writing this to push anyone to buy or sell. If waiting is the right call for you, I’ll tell you that.

Would it be a bad idea to spend ten minutes looking at what your payment, or your home’s value, looks like at today’s numbers? Email me at tara@lionsdenre.com with “payment” or “value,” and I’ll send a short, plain-English snapshot for your situation. Prefer to talk? Call or text 208.571.8272.

To your next move,
Tara Heinz, REALTOR®
Lions Den Real Estate | Keller Williams Realty Boise
208.571.8272  |  tara@lionsdenre.com  |  LionsDenRE.com

Sources: Intermountain MLS (IMLS), Keller Williams Realty Boise Market Dynamics report, September 2026 (single-family, condo and townhome sales; “past 12 months” = Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 30, 2026). Rates: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of Oct 8, 2026. Fed: FOMC statement, Sept 16, 2026. The payment example assumes 20% down and principal and interest only, with no taxes, insurance or fees. Rates change weekly. This is not lending or financial advice. Equal Housing Opportunity.